21/05/12 10:46
Every week and every day the situation in the Middle East is becoming more strained, exposing our country to a great danger. Some of us may think that this region is far away, but in reality it is quite near in terms of both geopolitics and geographical location.
I remember when the US hit Iraq back in 1990, the danger was seriously considered in Moscow: they feared that the strategic missiles launched by US during military operations could change their course and hit the North Caucasus. They even discussed the possibility that the smoke emitted after the explosion of Iraqi oil field would change the environmental condition in the Caucasian region.
The fears were exaggerated but not altogether illusory. And Iran is much closer to Georgia than Iraq. In fact, this country is our neighbor although fortunately (!) it does not border on Georgia. We say “fortunately” because if we had a common border with them, a small country like Georgia would be in more danger and the international forces active in the region, or the so called “big actors” would definitely try to involve Georgian in the conflict.
For example, Israel and US do not consider using our aerodromes because they have not yet reached an agreement with Azerbaijan and Armenia, who have a common border (including air border) with Iran.
The information about a secret agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan spread in press throughout the world. According to that information Israel is going to use Azerbaijan’s aerodromes for attacking Iran. It can be said for sure that such agreement was not reached; however, the negotiations were conducted. The US is becoming more and more convinced of the necessity of hitting Iran’s nuclear objects. Based on some data the US budget has already allotted funds for conducting war and massing huge military forces near Iran.
Meanwhile, a strange thing happened in Israel a few days ago: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to form the government coalition including 70-80% of the political forces represented in the Parliament (Knesset). Even the parties that had never cooperated with the authorities were accepted as members of the coalition. The party leaders said that at the given stage of their country’s history it is necessary to create the “national concord government”, since (attention!) “Israel is facing a great danger”.
What danger are they talking about? Arabian countries are not going to start a war against Israel: they have their own problems – the so called “Arabian Spring” revolutions. This process has not finished in Egypt and Libya, while a civil war is going on in Syria. No matter how much they hate Israel, they simply have no time for it. So, what dangers do they mean speaking about the “national concord coalition?” Of course the war with Iran! According to some experts Prime Minister Netanyahu has already taken the final decision and Israel will “hit” Iran by all means. And only a few weeks are left before that attack.
Chief of Israel Defense Forces General Staff declared a while ago that very soon Jewish pilots would have to respond to a great challenge. Obviously the attack on Iran’s nuclear objects will be made by aviation. It is another thing how well they do it; however, it is not very relevant to our present subject.
The main thing is that a war is about to happen near Georgia, in our geopolitical region, and no matter how it develops and what the results are, it will lead to the situation where no one will have time to think about Georgia.
And this is where the danger lies, compelling us to pay attention to the actions of Russia: Russian generals insist on conducting large-scale military training “Caucasus 2012” this year, involving ten thousands of soldiers including the military divisions positioned in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Possibly, during the training those divisions might try to organize some provocation in order to “finally solve” the problem of Georgia, which means finalizing what they started back in 2008.
That does no need any kind of “simulated events” – by solving the problem of Georgia and appointing a puppet of Kremlin the head of Georgian government Russia will get much profit not only in Caucasus, but in the Central Asia as well.
Just one example: this will put an end to talks about transportation of natural gas from central Asia to Europe through the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which disturbs “Gazprom” so much.
But a question arises whether Russia has a political base in Georgia to fulfill its intention; and respective figures to help it justify another aggression against our country during the regional turmoil (a war with Iran).
It would be too naïve to give a fully negative answer: it depends on what technology Russia will use and what will be the background for the next aggression. It is noteworthy that military training coincides with the election campaign in Georgia. If the war with Iran starts in summer, it will not be over by October. Iran is not Iraq and a blitzkrieg is not to be expected there. The fanatic followers of Aiatolas now disguised as students and businessmen honestly doing their jobs in London, Boston and other cities will do terrible things in the whole world. We say nothing about Israel. How can that little country resist the attack of so many fanatic self-murderers?
However, we have our own problems to worry about. A logical question springs up: how will Georgia stand the attack of the second nuclear state? Is there a possibility that the forces and politicians will appear who will blame the government for everything, trying to capitalize on the existing situation and use the argument of “preventing war and destruction” together with that of “rigging the elections” in order to seize power?
What position will Nino Burjanadze and Bidzina Ivanishvili take in such circumstances? There is no doubt that their antigovernment positions are included in the Russian scenario. Which candidate Kremlin will choose as more suitable? Such questions exist and considering the recent history of our country, they are quite legitimate.
This is not the matter of supporting some particular politician. We are talking about possible scenarios that seem hypothetical today, but can easily become a reality. It should be stressed that Russia does not want to put the candidate brought from Moscow in charge of the Georgian government, since such a scenario will be too obvious. In such situations Kremlin chooses more complicated game. Respectively, it will surely try to find the suitable figure among the politicians active in Georgia, who, at the same time, will be enjoying the support of a certain part of population and some kind of political experience as well.
In such a scenario any course of events will suit Russia – it will easily reach a compromise with the new government, return its troops to South Ossetian and Abkhazian territories, establish diplomatic relations and may even renew the import of Georgian wines and Borjomi mineral water without asking us to immediately join the “Eurasian Union”!
Someone may find this scenario unrealistic, but considering the lessons from the recent history of our country it seems quite relevant: was not the legally elected government overthrown with the help of Russian divisions back in 1992? Neither then nor now does it matter for Russia who governs Georgia: the main thing has always been to demonstrate the failure of the Georgia statehood, which is facilitated by the irresponsibility of the opposition on the one hand and incompetence of the government on the other hand!
To mention just a few examples of the above-mentioned incompetence we will recall the statement made by the Deputy Foreign Minister Nino Kalandadze regarding David Gareji Monastery Complex. It absolutely incomprehensible how such an incompetent person, who has no idea abut the art of diplomacy, can be the main spokeswoman of the Georgian diplomatic office, every Monday exposing the country to diplomatic scandals as well as intra-political crisis.
For Nino Kalandadze, as well as for the big part of our government, the elementary principle of diplomacy – “A tongue is given to a diplomat not for saying everything s/he thinks, but for not saying everything” – seems as obscure as a Chinese mantra.
Thus, when we speak about the possible future aggression of Russia and the possible role of Georgian opposition forces in it, it should be said that such plans are facilitated by the government’s incompetence, which can lead us to a cumulative effect. In case of fulfillment of that scenario I do not exclude the chance of questioning the independent statehood of Georgia!
Levan Mezurnishvili
I remember when the US hit Iraq back in 1990, the danger was seriously considered in Moscow: they feared that the strategic missiles launched by US during military operations could change their course and hit the North Caucasus. They even discussed the possibility that the smoke emitted after the explosion of Iraqi oil field would change the environmental condition in the Caucasian region.
The fears were exaggerated but not altogether illusory. And Iran is much closer to Georgia than Iraq. In fact, this country is our neighbor although fortunately (!) it does not border on Georgia. We say “fortunately” because if we had a common border with them, a small country like Georgia would be in more danger and the international forces active in the region, or the so called “big actors” would definitely try to involve Georgian in the conflict.
For example, Israel and US do not consider using our aerodromes because they have not yet reached an agreement with Azerbaijan and Armenia, who have a common border (including air border) with Iran.
The information about a secret agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan spread in press throughout the world. According to that information Israel is going to use Azerbaijan’s aerodromes for attacking Iran. It can be said for sure that such agreement was not reached; however, the negotiations were conducted. The US is becoming more and more convinced of the necessity of hitting Iran’s nuclear objects. Based on some data the US budget has already allotted funds for conducting war and massing huge military forces near Iran.
Meanwhile, a strange thing happened in Israel a few days ago: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to form the government coalition including 70-80% of the political forces represented in the Parliament (Knesset). Even the parties that had never cooperated with the authorities were accepted as members of the coalition. The party leaders said that at the given stage of their country’s history it is necessary to create the “national concord government”, since (attention!) “Israel is facing a great danger”.
What danger are they talking about? Arabian countries are not going to start a war against Israel: they have their own problems – the so called “Arabian Spring” revolutions. This process has not finished in Egypt and Libya, while a civil war is going on in Syria. No matter how much they hate Israel, they simply have no time for it. So, what dangers do they mean speaking about the “national concord coalition?” Of course the war with Iran! According to some experts Prime Minister Netanyahu has already taken the final decision and Israel will “hit” Iran by all means. And only a few weeks are left before that attack.
Chief of Israel Defense Forces General Staff declared a while ago that very soon Jewish pilots would have to respond to a great challenge. Obviously the attack on Iran’s nuclear objects will be made by aviation. It is another thing how well they do it; however, it is not very relevant to our present subject.
The main thing is that a war is about to happen near Georgia, in our geopolitical region, and no matter how it develops and what the results are, it will lead to the situation where no one will have time to think about Georgia.
And this is where the danger lies, compelling us to pay attention to the actions of Russia: Russian generals insist on conducting large-scale military training “Caucasus 2012” this year, involving ten thousands of soldiers including the military divisions positioned in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Possibly, during the training those divisions might try to organize some provocation in order to “finally solve” the problem of Georgia, which means finalizing what they started back in 2008.
That does no need any kind of “simulated events” – by solving the problem of Georgia and appointing a puppet of Kremlin the head of Georgian government Russia will get much profit not only in Caucasus, but in the Central Asia as well.
Just one example: this will put an end to talks about transportation of natural gas from central Asia to Europe through the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which disturbs “Gazprom” so much.
But a question arises whether Russia has a political base in Georgia to fulfill its intention; and respective figures to help it justify another aggression against our country during the regional turmoil (a war with Iran).
It would be too naïve to give a fully negative answer: it depends on what technology Russia will use and what will be the background for the next aggression. It is noteworthy that military training coincides with the election campaign in Georgia. If the war with Iran starts in summer, it will not be over by October. Iran is not Iraq and a blitzkrieg is not to be expected there. The fanatic followers of Aiatolas now disguised as students and businessmen honestly doing their jobs in London, Boston and other cities will do terrible things in the whole world. We say nothing about Israel. How can that little country resist the attack of so many fanatic self-murderers?
However, we have our own problems to worry about. A logical question springs up: how will Georgia stand the attack of the second nuclear state? Is there a possibility that the forces and politicians will appear who will blame the government for everything, trying to capitalize on the existing situation and use the argument of “preventing war and destruction” together with that of “rigging the elections” in order to seize power?
What position will Nino Burjanadze and Bidzina Ivanishvili take in such circumstances? There is no doubt that their antigovernment positions are included in the Russian scenario. Which candidate Kremlin will choose as more suitable? Such questions exist and considering the recent history of our country, they are quite legitimate.
This is not the matter of supporting some particular politician. We are talking about possible scenarios that seem hypothetical today, but can easily become a reality. It should be stressed that Russia does not want to put the candidate brought from Moscow in charge of the Georgian government, since such a scenario will be too obvious. In such situations Kremlin chooses more complicated game. Respectively, it will surely try to find the suitable figure among the politicians active in Georgia, who, at the same time, will be enjoying the support of a certain part of population and some kind of political experience as well.
In such a scenario any course of events will suit Russia – it will easily reach a compromise with the new government, return its troops to South Ossetian and Abkhazian territories, establish diplomatic relations and may even renew the import of Georgian wines and Borjomi mineral water without asking us to immediately join the “Eurasian Union”!
Someone may find this scenario unrealistic, but considering the lessons from the recent history of our country it seems quite relevant: was not the legally elected government overthrown with the help of Russian divisions back in 1992? Neither then nor now does it matter for Russia who governs Georgia: the main thing has always been to demonstrate the failure of the Georgia statehood, which is facilitated by the irresponsibility of the opposition on the one hand and incompetence of the government on the other hand!
To mention just a few examples of the above-mentioned incompetence we will recall the statement made by the Deputy Foreign Minister Nino Kalandadze regarding David Gareji Monastery Complex. It absolutely incomprehensible how such an incompetent person, who has no idea abut the art of diplomacy, can be the main spokeswoman of the Georgian diplomatic office, every Monday exposing the country to diplomatic scandals as well as intra-political crisis.
For Nino Kalandadze, as well as for the big part of our government, the elementary principle of diplomacy – “A tongue is given to a diplomat not for saying everything s/he thinks, but for not saying everything” – seems as obscure as a Chinese mantra.
Thus, when we speak about the possible future aggression of Russia and the possible role of Georgian opposition forces in it, it should be said that such plans are facilitated by the government’s incompetence, which can lead us to a cumulative effect. In case of fulfillment of that scenario I do not exclude the chance of questioning the independent statehood of Georgia!
Levan Mezurnishvili
